Finally an article where I can raise my question for everyone here. I have asked it a few times but I constantly get downvoted because I don't think people really understand what the Royals are doing. So here me out because I am looking for a stat, or hoping to influence someone smarter then I to develop one.
The problem that PECOTA and all the projections have with the Royals is that they have spit in the face of sabermetrics. Like I said, you are going to have to hear me out. When you ask most people how the Royals win ball games they point to the defense, the base running, and how they shorten games with a line up of 4-5 potential closers in the bullpen at all times.
I have sat in the stadium and watched hundreds and hundreds of Royals games and there is more to their winning then bullpens, defense and base running. The real way the Royals win ball games is by playing baseball how it was intended to be played. The Royals pitch the ball well enough, they catch balls that other people don't get to, they don't make outs on the bases, and the final and single most important aspect, is they destroy teams by putting the ball in play. Now when I say destroy, I do not mean they go out and put up 14 runs. What I mean is that in any game the Royals put the ball in to play and force the defense to make so many plays that eventually the defense makes a mistake and the flood gates open. This is where you see the Keep The Line Moving mentality come in to play. The Royals are the only team the last 2 years to strike out fewer then 1000 times (~about 140 fewer then any other team). And at the same time they have taken the fewest number of walks of any team.
By putting the ball in play the Royals gain a statistical advantage over everyone else by making use of outs and an outstanding clip. When a batter strikes out nothing happens (baring the rare time you get a PB or dropped 3rd strike). When a batter walks the runners only advance on base, and at most on that walk the guy in the box is only making it to first. You may think the Royals are a station to station team but they are not. They constantly take extra bases. They use excellent scouting and great base running to score from first on singles (see Cain on Hosmer single to RF in ALCS for example). They advance runners constantly on ground outs. When they hit double play balls their speed makes up for it in numerous different ways.
What I am getting at is that I have yet to find a stat that truly values what a Royals hitter does when he is in the box. Putting the ball in play is where the Royals gain their statistical advantage. It's forcing the defense to make 4 outs in an inning instead of 3. It's moving a guy to third base instead of only advancing one base on a walk. It is refusing to strike out because on a percentage of even weak grounders a runner will advance to second.
I am looking for a stat that truly measures the production that comes from putting the ball in play. The sit back and wait for the three run homer. Take walks and value OBP approach is dying and the Royals are killing it one million singles at a time.
If someone has any stat that truly measures the actual production (runners advanced even on outs, additional pitches throw by pitcher, what I would call forced errors, extra bases taken, runs scored on outs, etc.) If someone can develop a stat that shows the added value of a ground out over a strike out they will find the true advantage the Royals have.
I apologize for rambling but I have a lot to say about this and no one ever wants to listen because they are too obsessed with the old Saber philosophies.
TLDR: Need a stat that shows the production of a batter by putting the ball in play instead of striking out or walking. The Royals advantage comes from the number of balls in play, not necessarily the result of the AB.