Deeper dive into SOS numbers just posted:

Douglas, the second largest rural county by voters, had a huge turnout that I did not have -- 8,000 voters and 2 to 1 R. That added 2,000 ballots to the R lead in the rurals and made the projected lead with Trump margins up to 15,000 so far in the rurals.

If that projection is correct, the Dem statewide lead is only 6,500, or 2.1 percent; the actual lead with the rural numbers is 3.3 percent, still slightly above the Dem reg lead of 2.7 percent.

Remember, we don't know how many ticket-splitters at the top there are this time, and we don't know how pervasive tribalism will be down the ticket. We also don't know how the indies will break, which is the key to everything. If they are going single digits for the GOP, some Dems could hang on. But if they are double digits, I see a lot of red people.

Turnout is 16 percent, which would be 23 percent of the total if it ultimately is 70 percent, 27 percent if it is 60 percent and 33 percent if it is 50 percent.

Same caveats apply -- it's early, we don't know what pattern Week 2 will follow, Election Day remains a mystery.

But it is CLOSE.

I am going to be ill