They seem to use the economy heavily in their model and for good reason, the economy is the #1 thing voters care about. That said, one of the interesting things is that usually when the economy is good, a presidents favorable rating is good. We don't see that with trump currently (he hovers around 41-42% consistently no matter what, it seems).

I think modeling 2020 is going to be very tough and it's way to early to do it. For one, the economy could change in a flash and I'm sure that model would flip if it did. And two, we don't know the dem nomination yet. Who wins that is going to change modeling completely. For example, if Sanders win - he did very good in states that trump won over Clinton (Wisconsin, Ohio area) so how Sanders does in those states will model completely different then say if Harris wins. Of course if Harris wins, she might be able to challenge trump using the Obama map (the same one Clinton tried - and failed).

I love the modeling game and can't wait till we have a clearer picture!