In space exploration news, a study published Monday in the journal Nature Astronomy explores the dangers associated with rocket part reentries. According to the study, far from being an insignificant risk, falling bits of rockets should be considered a very real danger.

According to the study, the majority of space launches result in uncontrolled rocket body reentries, posing a risk of casualties to those on land, at sea, and in aircraft. Although these dangers have long been considered insignificant, more rocket bodies are being left in orbit while older rocket bodies continue to reenter the atmosphere as a result of gas drag.

The study aimed to estimate the approximate casualty expectations due to rocket body reentries as a function of latitude using data from launches and abandoned rocket bodies in orbit. It found that the casualty expectation (i.e., danger to human life) is disproportionately carried by populations in the Global South as a result of the distribution of rocket body launches and reentries, with major launching governments exporting risk to the rest of the globe.

Michael Byers, the study lead, and his colleagues did this by analyzing 30 years of data to calculate the risk of uncontrolled rocket re-entry into Earth's atmosphere. The analysis shows that, under existing methods, if a typical rocket re-entry distributes debris over 108 feet2 (10 m2), there is a 10 percent chance of one or more casualties over the next decade.