Let’s say hypothetically builders/developers/investors were to spend the next 5-10 years building at pre-Covid rates to build up the SFH supply to 2017 levels to meet the demand of 30-40 year olds buying single family homes in 2023-2033. And hypothetically all of these homes are on the far outreaches of metropolitan areas (45-60 miles from major urban center) or in forever rural middle of country areas.

Then let’s say there is a population that in 2023 is 65-70 years old and this population represents a huge percentage of the overall population of the country. And every generation after this generation is having less children and therefore shrinking.

Then let’s say in 15 years (year 2028) this large population were to start passing on and/or selling their SFH they owned for 40-50 years to move into care facilities. And all of these homes are 10-20 miles from major urban center (original suburbs).

Would this hypothetically create a huge real estate surplus?

If so, how would someone hypothetically position themselves today to take advantage of a hypothetical historic housing market crash 15 years from now?