Ok.Wow. This news shocked me... Bank of China stopped financing Russian oil trades, that was the last option for Russia...and it's gone

We're not friendly with China and I understand they aren't doing this for anything but self interest but DAMN.

The idea that nations are friends or enemies is flawed and outdated anyway. Usually you can explain international relationships way better if you assume that EVERY country focuses on their own interests only. Countries can seem like best friends. Like Ukraine and Russia 30 years ago. Hell, even 10 years ago. But it does not work like this. As soon as there is anything to gain by being aggressive, nations will be aggressive to each other.

Let's look at these five players here and focus ONLY ON THEIR INTERESTS: 1) China, 2) USA, 3) EU, Ukraine and Russia.

  1. What is China's best interest in this conflict? Well... they genuinely barely care. Russia's economy is weak and all they want from Russia is natural resources. They probably get this no matter how this conflict ends. Without a war, it involves less risks to be included in sanctions if they get oil etc. from Russia. With a war, Russia depends more on China. Good and bad are kinda equal here. That is why China keeps a low profile here. "Everyone should try to deescalate." This means nothing. Because this conflict means nothing to China. They are not friends or enemies with anybody here. They just have economic ties. Not only with Russia, but also with Ukraine, which Chinese media even considered an ally of China.

  2. USA... Ever noticed that the US is always pushing the EU to be harder against Russia. Why is this? Well, the US can gain a lot if EU does less business with Russia and more business with USA. EU buying expensive American oil and gas is something the US is hoping for.

  3. The EU tried extremely hard to convince Putin not to attack Ukraine. Because this would mean sanctions. And these sanctions means the EU has to buy expensive oil and gas from the US. The rest of the Russian economy is basically not important.

  4. Ukraine. That is very simple. Their best interest is to defend themselves at all costs. No need to analyse this further.

  5. Russia. Or better: Putin. ...well, this was just an idiot move. There is no 3D chess genius plan behind this. I think he actually believed his own lies. He assumed he could take Ukraine in a day or two. He assumed that Ukrainians would celebrate Russia. And he assumed that the war would be over before sanctions even start to kick in. So there would be not point for more sanctions and he would get Ukraine.

One interesting thing: NATO could intervene in Ukraine and Russia would obviously lose the war very fast. Russia even thought about this possibility and draw a red line: "If a Nato backed Ukraine tries to reclaim Crimea, this would mean war between Russia and Nato." So Nato openly supporting Ukraine would not mean a war between Russia and Nato. Great! So why is Nato not directly helping Ukraine to defend Kiev etc?

Let's look at the best interests of the countries involved again, especially at the best interest of USA: Heavy sanctions on Russia means that EU pays the highest price (after Russia obviously). The US might even gain something out of these sanctions. And they actually do already. Look at the stock market: US stocks are higher than before the war. EU stocks are lower than before the war. Russian stocks are obviously completely fucked. So the current situation is very very good for the US.

Now let's think about a war between Nato and Russia: Suddenly it would not be the EU who has to do the heavy work (aside from Ukraine obviously), but the US. Because Nato is 70% US. So the US has zero interests of Nato directly intervening in Ukraine. Maybe even less interest than Russia. If Nato attacks Russia in Ukraine, Russia would have a face-saving way out of Ukraine. They could blame Nato for being aggressive and risking a war with Russia and leave Ukraine in exchange for removing the sanctions. Not gonna happen, though, because the US does not want to go this way. And they alone make the call in Nato.

Everything makes 100% perfect sense if you ignore "friends" and "enemies" and just assume that all China, US, EU and Ukraine focus on their own best interest only. Except Putin. Putin is not focused on his or Russia's best interest. He is simply an idiot. He lost. And I think he starts to realise this.

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