Sources: Patriots fear lengthy suspension for Brady

Not the poster, but I'll answer what upsets me about the report. I'd like to preclude this by stating that I do not think the equipment managers are innocent, but that I find the links to Brady currently tenuous. I am waiting to see what more happens before making up my mind, but I do have problems with the Wells report:

To get the statistically significant variance that suggests the Pats balls were tampered with, Exponent uses an n of 22 measurements. However, they don't actually have 22 measurements.

11 of those measurements are Walt Anderson's "recollections" of what he found before the game. Simply put, memories from a couple months later cannot be assumed as identical to recorded and observed observations at the time. This, in and of itself, is a pretty untenable, but it gets worse.

The reason Anderson's recollections are taken is because Wells believe his memory to be trustworthy. However Wells outright dismisses Anderson's memory 6 other times in the report when it contradicts other testimonies. Including two times of utmost importance: 1. Anderson remembers using the logo gauge to measure the balls before the game (those "recollections" that are so iron clad), but Wells concludes that he likely used the no-logo gauge (because if he used the logo gauge there's no evidence of tampering). 2. Anderson doesn't remember how many balls the patriots supplied (11, 12, or 13), but he's entirely 100% sure what those measurements were (but also not sure of which gauge they came from!).

Wells and Exponent can't have it both ways. Recollections aren't recorded observations and you can't pick and choose when someone's memory is trustworthy and not on an issue so that it fits your narrative.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, these weaknesses contribute to this buried sentence from page 228: "In sum, the data did not provide a basis for us to determine with absolute certainty whether there was or was not tampering as the analysis of such data ultimately is dependent upon assumptions and information that is not certain."

I also think there's more to this story. I'm going to wait before I make up my mind and I'm open to Brady being guilty of cheating (although I, obviously, hope not!). I'm simply noting my own personal problems with the current evidence as presented.

/r/nfl Thread Parent Link - csnne.com