Hi! I found a similar question asked elsewhere, so the answer there might help you:
Clearly Americans do not look at them for examples. .Indeed, most voters will not know anything about those elections.But there are some global trends.
You can see some hints, but they are hardly conclusive. .In Spain there was no pronounced swing left or right, but there was a strong "anti-incumbency" and "we want a fresh look" mood. .Hence Podemos (left) and Ciudadanos (centre right).
In Canada there was a swing to the left and -again- a rejection of the incumbent. .In UK the conservatives increased their majority.
So a shift to the right and support for incumbency or "competence". .However, the election of Corbyn as Labour leader shows pressure for more left wing. .And the continued presence of Farage & UKIP shows anti-incumbency is strong (they would have achieved results under PR but FPTP keeps them as a minority)Greece.
Clear swing to the left. .Clear desire for "fresh hands".France. .No result yet, but Socialists are slipping.
Strength of FN shows the strength opf anti-incumbency and perhaps swing to the right. .So you can see:A strong desire for anti-incumbency = Trump, Saunders.
Bad for Bush, might hurt Hillary. .No clear answer on swing left (Canada, Greece) or right (UK, maybe France).
Minority candidates becoming more significant: none of those elections were won by women, but Le Pen, Ada Colau, Saenz de Santamaria, Theresa May are all significant).The global trends are:A steady social shift. .Women, minorities, getting more powerful; social conservatives feel threatened.The economic crash & global recession.
This has hurt lots of people - but the ones who are most angry are the older, less skilled white men. .They are the bedrock of FN in France - and Trump in USA. .Most people are in the middle.
The don't like the extremes; they don't trust "the same old people" - but they will vote for "competence"ImplicationsDemographics favour democrats.GOP has alienated hispanics, has abandoned most minorities and their position on abortion costs them votes with women. .All those positions hurt them with young voters but as they don't vote they count less.Anti-incumbency helps Trump & Saunders - but assuming (likely but not certain) they get eliminated in primaries then it hurts both sides. .Potentially a boost for Republicans if Cruz or Rubio or whoever can pull off "I'm an outsider" but it is a stretch.
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