Thoughts on shorting the commercial real estate market?

Ok, since we all have our real estate experts here, I figured I'd throw my hat into the ring...

I work a CRE lender, while retail hasn't been doing good (Mall's, Payless, Gander, Sports Authority, HHGreg, Sears, ETC.). This definitely is not good. However...retail in most large metro areas are showing rising rents. Where you are struggling is with locations with big box retail. Its moving to a market dictated by location's draw (not just convenient). People can buy shit online, but if they go shopping they want an experience.

It's too late to jump on the shorting retail chain right now, cause you've missed the boat.

The real estate pecking order is as follows....

  1. Apartments/Housing (people will pay to have roof over their head)

1B. Hospitals (people aren't going to stop getting sick anyless)

  1. Office (people will work to keep paying for necessaities)

  2. Retail (People stop buying shit they don't need, so grocery anchored retail in strong locations is the diamond in a sea of crap)

Not included: Industrial because they sign longer term leases on average. Self-storage is unique cause people downsize or lose homes and they have to store crap somewhere. But it's not as bulletproof as other types of RE.

/r/wallstreetbets Thread