First off, even though their record was just shy of "middling," I truly and honestly believe that the Bears were the worst team in the NFL last year. Not all five of their wins were exactly complete games, and their two apparent signature wins - San Francisco and Atlanta - turned out to be against opponents with unforeseen problems of their own.
Somehow, though, I see the 2014 season as an aberration rather than a trend, and an example of how BS journalist narratives sometimes can make an impact. In-fighting and buck-passing up top created a situation where the players were very obviously not buying in, and it seems reasonable to argue that the entire roster played below its talent level, even if only slightly.
Thus, why the Bears will win: * Despite the new scheme and lingering question marks, the Bears field a Top-20 defense. This is just enough to keep most games within reach. * The new regime notices that Forte was accidentally penciled in as "WR2," and corrects this clerical error. A 1500+ yard season ensues. * Cutler does Cutler things. Mistakes, yes, but if this new system lets him throw more than screens, there will also be some highlight-reel touchdowns in clutch moments. (Remember, before he got hurt in 2012, he was a Top-3 QB in the fourth quarter, if you buy the Total QBR stat.) * Playing off of my first point, let's say that most of their games are one-score games in the fourth quarter. There are some correlations to be made, but season-to-season performance in close games tends to be random. Why can't the '15 Bears be the '14 Lions with a worse defense and better offense? * Last year notwithstanding, the Bears have a strong prime-time history, often showing up against superior competition. If they can make the playoffs, there should be no drop-off in performance, and they have as good a chance as any team.
Coming back to reality, why the Bears won't win: * All of my bullet points above are "coulds," not "wills." Any or all of them are just as likely to flop as to thrive. * Looking at the NFC this year, the wild card race will be insane. The safest route to the playoffs is to win your division. Can the Bears even go 2-4? * The 49ers may have lost some steam, but the NFCW is still imposing. The AFCW may have faded, but not by much. A playoff record will depend on surprise wins against the contenders in both divisions, and the Bears are unlikely to clean house in either division. * We know what we're getting with Cutler - crazy fantasy numbers and baffling picks. The timing, and in a certain sense the order of those events will really matter. If the picks come early, they'll lose a lot of games.