So I work for a large county. 95% of the positions in my department can and still are being done remotely. About 90% of the 3,500 jobs county-wide can be done remotely as well.

Almost immediately (we're talking like, July 2020) the decision was made to just... stay WFH indefinitely, pandemic or not.

One by one, departments started consolidating on-site workers into smaller and smaller areas -- they'd move the 5 people on site from an area that can comfortably seat 40 down to an area that can comfortably seat 10-15, then cut their contract with Facilities to save money.

It makes sense, but it's kinda stupid, the county outright owns the entire complex of buildings, yes it costs to retain staff to maintain them, fix problems, keep the heat on, etc. -- but it's gotta be a small fraction of what they'd pay for a lease somewhere else.

Anyway, my question is this -- has anyone been talking about the next 2-5 years as this same process happens over and over again, are we gonna see a commercial real estate crisis? Builders and landlords need these places rented or leased to pay back loans, if lots of landlords start defaulting, maybe that affects borrowing and liquidity, on and on eventually leading to layoffs, bankruptcies, high unemployment, etc.?

I don't think that's gonna happen, but I really do think we'll see some effect, and it's an interesting thought experiment. Curious as to your thoughts.