Arizona State University poll (largest impact on 538's AZ projections) has 57-24 Dem-Rep splits

Results taken from that sample are obviously not indicative of the AZ population

Results taken from any random sample are more often than not not going to be indicative of the population as a whole. That's the entire reason weighting is done in polls. The fact that this poll had more people who identified as Democrats than Republicans should have no bearing on the actual reported results because they are weighted to the population.

57-24 are the unweighted percentages of respondents who are registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans

This is also wrong. They're asking for party identification, not affiliation, at that is subject to change, especially in an election like this where Republicans may be hesitant to identify with the current candidate.

In polls taken after elections, a far greater percentage of respondents report themselves as having voted for the winner than the actual percentage on election night. People want to be affiliated with the winner. All of this is combined with the fact that Democrats simply tend to have better identification numbers in general.

And again, if you really think this poll is rigged or in some way off, then why is its result of Clinton+6 directly in line with RCP's current aggregate of 6.2? This is the complete opposite of an outlier.

The people who look at polls that have more of one party than another and call foul do not understand how polling works. And when they attempt to correct those polls erroneously, you get results like the "unskewed polls" that predicted a huge Romney win in 2012. These polling companies' business is literally relying on them being accurate predictors of elections. They know what they are doing.

/r/WayOfTheBern Thread Parent Link - projects.fivethirtyeight.com