Actually, the <10 point loss is basically a victory for her. We'll potentially end up leaving the state with the same amount of pledged delegates (12 each) and she'll walk away with 6 of the 8 superdelegates, meaning she actually got more.
Sanders has a lead of 12.8 (down around 0.5% from yesterday) now on RCP.
The Daily Kos has had a look at how many delegates you'll get depending on the percentage of the vote.
| Delegates | Split | Trigger Level % Rounded |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0-8 | <15% |
| 1 | 1-7 | 15.0% |
| 2 | 2-6 | 18.8% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 31.3% |
| 4 | 4-4 | 43.8% |
| 5 | 5-3 | 56.3% |
| 6 | 6-2 | 68.8% |
| 7 | 7-1 | 81.3% |
| 8 | 8-0 | >85% |
NH delegates are split in this way:
RCP suggests Bernie will only get 53.3% of the vote at present, which means that 4 delegates will be awarded to both candidates. It's unlikely that the congressional districts will deviate too much from the state at large, but hopefully we do get as many delegates as possible. We need to hope for 5-3 splits as much as possible. With current polling 4-4 splits are a more likely bet, and that's exactly what Clinton wants and needs.
A few outcomes that could happen:
| Type | Clinton | Sanders | Uncommitted |
|---|---|---|---|
| CD1 | 3 | 5 | |
| CD2 | 4 | 4 | |
| At-large | 4 | 4 | |
| SD | 6 | 2 | |
| Total | 17 | 13 | 2 |
If things continue to tighten (maybe the most likely now):
| Type | Clinton | Sanders | Uncommitted |
|---|---|---|---|
| CD1 | 4 | 4 | |
| CD2 | 4 | 4 | |
| At-large | 4 | 4 | |
| SD | 6 | 2 | |
| Total | 18 | 12 | 2 |
I hope something around here will actually happen:
| Type | Clinton | Sanders | Uncommitted |
|---|---|---|---|
| CD1 | 3 | 5 | |
| CD2 | 3 | 5 | |
| At-large | 3 | 5 | |
| SD | 6 | 2 | |
| Total | 15 | 15 | 2 |