It’s entirely possible the economy collapses prior to next November but even with a stronger economy I’d be skeptical of a Trump re-election. Democrats in recent history do better in presidential years than in midterms and in 2018 they retook the House by a large margin with enough gerrymandering in favor of Republicans that it was considered to be impossible earlier on in the decade. Of course some maps changed due to state court interventions but not 40 seats worth. Then you have all the other victories and strong performances in the last three years and if that isn’t a bellwether for 2020 I really don’t know what is. Plus looking at stocks, gdp, and employment don’t always tell the whole story, when for many conditions have not improved in meaningful ways. The Shah loved to tout how strong he made the economy of Iran without realizing or perhaps caring that most of that growth was improving things for a fraction of the population. Voters clearly care about more than just the economy, otherwise we’d be taking about President Hillary Clinton.