I see two potential Patriots losses: the Vikings and the Steelers. I want to say the Steelers'll beat em and they beat the Vikings. So lets say they're 12-4. The Chiefs could lose to the Rams, Ravens, and Chargers. So lets say 13-3, since IMO they're favored in all but the Rams game (I'd bet the Chargers could make it close, though.) The Steelers have the Pats, Chargers, Sts., and Bengals. If they can beat two of those, lets say Chargers and Bengals, they 12-4. If they can beat the Patriots as well, them and the Chiefs are top two for sure. Otherwise, the Pats make the first round bye by virtue of being in the AFC East (where they're undefeated) versus the AFC North, where the Steelers have lost twice.