Philippines is in an economic trap that will keep it as a middle-income country

I think economic growth will continue in the short to medium term, but I also don't think long term prospects for being a fully developed country are good. The bullish case: the Philippines is set to reap a demographic dividend because of a bulge in the working age population. Furthermore, and this is really important to understanding the current economic growth story, the Philippines and Filipinos have surprisingly little debt. Debt ratios both public and private are quite low, meaning there's room to leverage up, which will increase economic growth. The developed world already has about an much debt as it can handle, too much in the case of the European periphery. So international finance is looking for somewhere to put all the money sloshing around a low yield world, and the Philippines starts looking comparatively attractive.

The argument against is that recent economic growth is pure catch-up growth, the low hanging fruit available because the Philippines was previously doing everything wrong. Take a look at total factor productivity, which might be the best all around barameter of a country's long term economic prospects. Even though it has been growing at a respectable pace for the last decade, it's still much less than it was in the 1970s. This means that the economy today uses labor and capital less efficiently than it did 40 years ago, which is ridiculous. The Philippines fucked up hard from about 1975 to 2005, a full thirty years of gross failure, and that will have consequences for generations. If you look sector by sector, you can see that even today agriculture, manufacturing, and exports are not growing in line with the total economy. Growth is fastest in consumption, retail trade, auto purchases, construction, and real estate. None of those increases the productivity of an economy in the long run.

I'd also point out that the Philippines as a whole doesn't have to develop into an advanced economy for your aunt's condo investments to pan out. What if the future is a polarized economy, with an increasingly wealthy professional elite living in the nicer parts of the NCR and maybe a few in Cebu, Davao, and Iloilo, and then a huge teeming mass of subsistence-level poor people with no marketable skills who are mostly irrelevant to the formal economy? That sounds pretty likely to me. In such a case, the condos are still worth more because good jobs are only available in the small part of the country where the condos are, and people with means are desperate to get away from the dysfunctional underclass.

/r/Philippines Thread