Before I begin, here’s how the race stands as of March 19th, data pulled from The Green Papers:
| Clinton Vote | Sanders Vote | Clinton Delegates | Sanders Delegates | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6M | 6.1M | 1,171 | 847 | Clinton +324 |
These are pledged delegates and do not include superdelegates, which I will not be referencing in the rest of this thread. These also exclude popular vote figures for IA, ME, and NV, as they are not reported.
The breakdown by state is here.
With 2,018 pledged delegates accounted for, and 2,033 of the 4,051 delegates remaining to be accounted for, we have reached the halfway mark of the Democrat’s primary season.
In the wake of Clinton’s victories over Sanders on Super Tuesday 2.0/3.0, a lot of various ‘facts’ have been raised about Sanders chances going forward, and I wanted to bust some of them:
FACT: Clinton’s delegate lead is larger than Obama’s ever was in 2008 – and is 30X larger than Obama’s lead at the halfway mark in 2008
I’m not quite sure where this myth began, but it is factually untrue. The wikipedia page covering this gives a great chronology of events, but basically IA, NH, NV, and SC all voted first in 2008, just like in 2016. Obama won all but NH and had a 63-48 lead on Clinton (keep in mind that Edwards was still in the race at this time). After Edwards was out, this became 88-46 (+42) for Obama.
By contrast, in 2016, Hillary was up +25 after SC.
However, in late January 2008, MI and FL held disputed primaries, in which Clinton won both for a 174-126 result, meaning Clinton entered Super Tuesday with a 220-214 lead on Obama.
Super Tuesday in 2008 had 23 events. Obama won 12 events, including IL and GA, while Clinton won 11 but won CA, NY, NJ and MA. Even so, Obama maintained larger margins in his victories which resulted in a 849-832 (+17) victory for Obama, flipping the race to 1,063-1,052 (+11) for Obama at the halfway mark of the 2008 election.
That’s nearly 30 times smaller of a margin than Clinton has at the halfway mark today.
MYTH: In 2008, Clinton brought it close again afterwards
News pundits said this race was very close, but analysts said the writing was on the wall. Obama still had some Southern states to go, and his great showing on Super Tuesday energized his campaign. Coupled with big time endorsements before and after the race, such as from Ted Kennedy, Obama surged in February winning all the contests and opening a 136 delegate lead at the end of February.
Clinton simply couldn’t recover from this, despite winning OH, RI, and TX in March as well as PA, IN, WV, KY, PR, and SD in April. She ended up losing by just under 100 delegates, despite going 9-7-1 in the remaining contests.
Flip the script around to this year, where Sanders is already trailing by 324 pledged delegates and you can see how bad of a predicament he is in.
FACT: Clinton is far outperforming Obama’s own victory in 2008
Here is a map of states won comparing 2008 and 2016. Clinton is in green. You’ll note something big: Clinton is winning where Obama did in the South, but is also winning in the big states Obama didn’t win like in MA, TX, FL, and in OH.
Obama ended up winning with 62 more pledged delegates than Clinton in 2008 despite losing CA, OH, PA, FL, TX, NJ, and MA. Clinton has won 4 of those 6 states already, including two (FL and TX) with absurd margins.
MYTH: Sanders victories have come in blue states which will help in the second half
While it is true that Sanders has won big in some blue states, like MN, VT, he’s also won small like in MI. He has also lost in IL and MA by small margins, and OH (a state that has gone blue 4 out of the 6 past elections) by moderate margins.
Most of his victories – where he outperformed expectations/demographics - have come in red states like KS, NE, and OK.
While the criticism that Hillary has won a lot of her delegates in red states in the general is fair if deceptive, consider this too: KS, NE, and OK (3 of Sanders’ 9 victories) went blue last in 1964 during LBJ’s landslide. Before that? 1932 and 1936, during FDR’s first two terms.
Meanwhile, AR, GA, LA, TN, NC, and VA have all gone blue at least once in the past 6 general elections.
FACT: Sanders has been crushed in swing states
In addition, his purple state performance has been awful. If we look at states that were within 8% of flipping in the 2012 general, we have these states (margin of victory in 2012), their electoral votes, and victory margins this primary season:
What’s that mean? Electoral vote wise, Clinton has won 107-23 against Sanders, and her purple state wins have gone from tiny margins to huge blowouts, with consistently big wins in big states.
