Part 2:
So, now that I’m done looking back at the first half of the election, let’s look at some of the common things being said about the second half:
FACT: Sanders needs to win by +18% delegate margins in EVERY STATE to follow to win the pledged delegate race
With a 324 delegate deficit, and 2033 delegates remaining, Sanders has to win 1179 of the remaining 2033 delegates, or 57.9%, to beat Clinton by 1 delegate. This chart shows how +5 and +10 margins for Sanders, in every single state to follow, simply doesn’t get it done.
And in a two person race, 57.9% isn’t just winning 8% more. No, it means your opponent must be limited to 42.1% of the delegate count going forward – a +17.8% margin for Sanders that he must average across the remaining contests.
Sanders has only achieved that in a primary state once this whole season, and that was in New Hampshire where he went +22% in the popular vote.
Note: the actual popular vote count has to be higher than +18%, as delegates are distributed by district as well as at-large proportional. A district with 4 delegates, for instance, splits it 2-2 unless one candidate achieves 62.5% or higher, meaning Sanders gains nothing by winning small, as he only gained +4 in Michigan demonstrates.
But what about caucuses you say? He won those big, didn’t he?
FACT: Only 9 Caucus contests remain, and they account for only 286 delegates
Here is the remaining schedule for 2016. Note that only 9 remaining contests are caucuses – and they account for a total of 286 delegates. Sanders may be heavily favored in most of them – but Clinton has won the American Samoa and Northern Mariana Islands caucuses, so Guam isn’t a given. Clinton has done well with Hispanic voters, and so Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands aren’t a given for Sanders either.
But what about the primaries? Surely Sanders is favored in many to come.
FACT: Sanders is favored in more states going forward, but most of the delegates are in Clinton favored states
We keep hearing about how Sanders has more favorable contests coming. And that’s true – but most of those states are states with tiny delegate counts. Looking at the remaining schedule again, here are the top states remaining:
That’s right, 1,477 of the remaining 2,033 delegates – 73% of them – reside in just NINE of the remaining 29 contests.
Washington is heavily favored for Sanders, no doubt about that, but the rest of the states?
California is a white-minority state (40.1% non-Hispanic white) with an extremely diverse electorate, heavy urban populations, and isn’t as liberal of a state as people think it is. Even in 2008, Obama only beat McCain in the general there by 25%. Expecting Sanders to win by similar margins against Clinton amongst Democrats is asking for quite a bit.
New York is a closed primary. Latest polls also have Clinton up from +20 to +48. It’s the home of Wall Street, has a very diverse population, and most of its population lives in NYC or its suburbs.
Pennsylvania is ALSO a closed primary. In addition, after Clinton’s +14 win in Ohio, claiming the Rust Belt is Sanders territory has been premature. A conservative white population + urban black populations in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, plus a closed primary, make this favorable territory for Clinton as well.
New Jersey is semi-closed, and much of New York applies to New Jersey.
Maryland – closed primary. 30% black, wealthy white population (wealthiest state per household in the US), and tons of people who live in MD who work in DC and literally establishment politics. See Northern Virginia’s 65-35 margins for an idea of how MD will vote.
Wisconsin – open primary. This should be Sanders’ best primary going forward in a big state, but Clinton fought hard in neighboring Iowa and Illinois, winning both. Sanders needs big victories to close the delegate gap – and Clinton can focus a lot of her resources here to minimize his victory.
Indiana – open primary. This should be Sanders territory too, but after Ohio, there’s no guarantee he can win the white vote here in a conservative state. In addition, there are large urban black populations in places like Gary. Sanders couldn’t win Illinois, which has a very large white liberal population – Indiana with a white conservative population will be a difficult fight. Clinton just barely won this state in 2008 with Obama winning the black vote there – it’s unlikely she’ll lose this state nor by big margins if Sanders wins it.
Arizona – closed primary, voting already started. Large elderly voting base, lots of early voting, large Hispanic populations, all areas that have helped Clinton. Plus, closed primary.
So as you can see, besides WI and WA, none of the big states remaining massively benefit Sanders by demographics. And besides WA, no state is going to give him the big margins he needs to win by to close the delegate gap.
And big wins in WA and WA can be easily wiped out by big losses in MD and AZ, to say nothing about losing in PA, NJ, or NY.
In fact, 10% losses in PA, NJ, and NY will wipe out a 12% victory in CA entirely. It will cut in half the delegate gain of a 25% victory in CA as well – the same margin Obama beat McCain in the general in CA in 2008 by.
FACT: As each state votes, each Sanders underperformance shrinks his window of victory
Take New York for example. Let’s say Clinton wins by 10% and gains 40 delegates. If NY were tomorrow, a +364 margin with 1,786 delegates remaining (2033-247) increases his delegate proportion to 60.2%, or needing a +20.4 margin.
Even a NY tie if it were held tomorrow, for instance, would hurt Sanders: he goes up to 59.1-40.9 or +18.2 margins. He needs to win outright, and by large margins, to even stand a chance.
FACT: Sanders hasn’t won big in big or diverse states – and they make up the bulk of delegates to come
Let this sink in for a second: Sanders hasn’t won a primary by double digits in a state that has more than 400,000 voters. In fact, his only victory in a state with >400,000 total voters, has been in Michigan, where he won by <2%. Graph
That’s not going to help in delegate rich states or in gapping the popular vote.
Sanders also hasn’t won a state that is diverse. This chart of Sanders margin of victory vs. Non-Hispanic White population speaks for itself I think.
FACT: Sanders can win every single contest to follow by 30%, and Clinton merely needs to average a tie in CA, PA, NY, and NJ, and she’ll still win
Just how bleak is all this? Look at this chart.
Sanders can win every remaining single contest by 30%, (65-35 margins, larger than all but his VT and NH wins), while Clinton simply needs to fight to a delegate tie in CA, PA, NY, and NJ – and Clinton still wins.
Mathematically, it’s not over – but the math isn’t pretty nor are his chances for the nomination getting any better.
