Redfiz,

I've been occasionally stumbling across your posts for months now. Any time any poll comes out in Bernie's favor you jump to downplay and discount it. You writ in a way that makes you sound like you are simply being pragmatic, but the longer I've watched the trends the more it becomes clear that all you're really doing is attempting to console your own fears that a candidate you don't support has a realistic shot at the nomination.

I remember just before Iowa, maybe about 2 weeks before New Hampshire you said that there was absolutely no way Bernie would win NH by 20 point. Maybe 10, you said. But definitely not 20.

I remember about a month before Iowa, you were sure that Sanders wouln't be able to come within 5 points of Hillary.

I remember way back in September, you were citing Nate Silver and insisting that Sanders had a national support ceiling of 30%-35% and that we would never see him grow beyond that.

You've been wrong every time.

Now, yes, this pole clearly shows his pole as higher than any other. We shouldn't assume from this poll it means he's leading. But we shouldn't assume he isn't either. What we can see from comparing every recent poll to the previous iteration of the same poll that he's been making rapid gains accross nearly all demographics. Yea, there are polls show him trailing by 11. Where did those polls show him last time? There have also been polls showing him trailing by 4, 3, 2. The poll averages have him trailing by around 4.

So how about you stop trying to pick at every poll that shows something you don't like. You clearly suck at reading demographic trends anyway, as every statement of confidence I've ever seen you make has been wrong anyway.

Your candidate is in trouble. She's got an edge, but it's slipping in a big way. A big part of that is that her campaign couldn't bring themselves to see the reality that his ideas and personality resonate with a lot of people. You demonstrate her campaigns central mistake perfectly.