I think the effect will be the opposite. I see Afghanistan as a solid lesson that we can't just roll up, wipe the slate clean, and gift people "democracy." I thought that was dumb before the war, but I also thought that if we actually stuck around for 20 years we'd see something.

This whole adventure is rock solid proof that if there is a way to "foster democracy" or even just a robust government in nations, the US military has absolutely no clue how to do it.

The next time someone says we need to invade somewhere, there's going to be a chorus of banshees pointing at Afghanistan and the Taliban and how we spent decades and fortunes and lives for fuck all.