Tension between Moscow and Damascus following latest advances by Jaish al-Fateh

This is all a ruse done by Russia, Iran, Syria and US.

US must avoid further Arabs from reaching Europe if they want to keep European as allies or simply out of a civil war. None wants more muslims. Beyond this, the Russians have deployed muilitary equipment that has defenetly impeded them from atacking Syria directly. Further more, if any of it's coalition allies atempts anything that undermines Syria or Russia, they (Syria and Russians) can use their kurdish cart against the Turks and send it into a deep and long civil war wich no one will be able to stop, further agravating the refugee crisis. This is what you call a checkmate.

So, the US has agreed to coordinate with Russia to keep this situation from going to hell. Never the less, they will still opose any action that makes more refugees pop-up in Europe, wich would explain their position on the ceasefire.

On the other hand, Russia wants the west to cooperate. Further more, they have no need to show any signs of willingness to cooperate besides what they do on the ground (wich shows some cooperation) and they don't want to give away their strategy. So, they could give the impression that there is some problems between them and Iran, but I believe this is only an impression.

In the ground and in the context of present, there is no need to continue ground operations for the time, since it's summer and this is benefits the OP. Since, they are less afected by climate. So, it is to be prefered no to engange and keep a partial ceasefire ongoing.

Besides this, there is the fact that this conditions of uncertainty are a source of refreshing realism for OP forces and civilian supporters. They now see that this conflict might go on for longer time. They see that they do not have the capacity to engage in anyway that could lead to a decisive defeat for the government. In the contrary, all of their offensives have lead to a huge ammount of casualties wich they can't afford. Further more, the NSC sees that they can't really coordinate their efforts with radical elements wich will continue to act in their own interests. Civilians, on the other hand, have to make a decision: Eather they engange in reconciliation talks, go to government held terriroty and become refugees for the time being or they stay in the unsave grounds of OP held territories for an impredictable ammount of time. It's up to them.

About Hezbollah, I belive it is better fr them not to engage and wait for the correct conditions set in to engage in offensive operations, wich could happen when winter season arrives.

Until Winter doesn't arrives, we can expect little changes in territory. Even the fight withh ISIS might be put in hold, since the US has decided to eply troops in Syria, wich Syriams nor Russians really want. If I was in charge of planning, I would suspend my operations or even give ISIS the oportunity to replenish and refocus their efforts on the US and it's allies.

Not all will be kept on hold tho, since the liberation of damascus is a priority. This fight will continue and eventually the forces in this pocket will be given the chance to leave the pocket and to be transfered to OP territory in the north. Once this happens, wich could be anytime within the next 6 months, a lot of troops from the SAA will be freed and will be able to releave Other fronts, or even start the liberation of the Homs pocket.

/r/syriancivilwar Thread