I have been thinking that all of the Olly foreshadowing is so blatant lately. It almost seems like a confirmed fact that Olly will be instigating or at least playing a large part in For the Watch. Even show-only people are at the point where they think Olly's going to stab Jon.

So my hypothetical question is this: What if this is a big intentional red herring?

Well if it were, there would still have to be some point to Olly's reaction shots and to his conversation with Sam. So that got me thinking...

What if Olly was originally pissed at Jon, but has had a legitimate change of mind through his conversation with Jon and his later conversation with Sam? Here's an example of one possible scenario of how this played/plays out:

• Olly was originally pissed at Jon for wanting to get Wildling help.
• Olly asked Jon about this, and Jon did indeed persuade him that it's necessary.
• (Here's where the real hypotheticals start) Olly has been hearing Thorne talk shit about Jon and Sam, two people he seems to have grown close to. Perhaps Olly has even heard whispers of an assassination plot against Jon, or what he believes to be so.
• Olly thinks "I need to do something about this" and then had a conversation with Sam about "doing the right thing that may seem wrong to others at the time".
• Olly now cements in his mind that he needs to murder Alliser Thorne to prevent the assassination of Jon.
• Olly attempts to stab Alliser Thorne while Jon is giving a certain speech about a certain letter. Alliser Thorne retaliates angrily, accidentally injuring nearby willings, and possibly snapping Olly's neck.
• Wildlings see this and get pissed off. Chaos begins outside. Wun Wun starts rampaging.
• For the Watch