Probably unpopular opinion, but I think the US will ultimately fail to defend both and yes it'll be a cold war scenario afterwards, with a major decoupling of western and 'global south' economies.

I don't think we'll necessarily see an invasion of Ukraine, but Russia will largely dictate the terms of peace. I fully expect forceful Chinese reunification with Taiwan in the next 20 years and the US ultimately backing down because it'll be militarily impossible to defend. China is playing the long game successfully.

Living conditions of societies worldwide could be greatly impacted by the rivalry in the Pacific, that's a game changer. By comparison, Ukraine is a relatively mild flashpoint.