Update: ... I'm now thinking it's more likely than not it didn't happen.

Gee, those are strong words. That's a big statement man. Are you sure you're ready to commit to that at this point in time?

In case the tone isn't being conveyed in the text, I'm being sarcastic. It's pretty obvious to me and I would hope most reasonable people (so, I guess not you) that it is extremely likely that it did not happen. In addition to what you said about her not recalling anything at all, they went to different high schools and dozens of women who knew him during high school and afterwards have had nothing but glowing praise for his character and respect. All of this plus considering the political implications of the allegations and the circus show that the Kavanaugh hearings have been so far should be all one needs to conclude the allegations are extremely unlikely to be true.