The game is pretty shallow, it doesn't take long to figure out the matchups. CCS was considered the only weapon able to counter estoc turtling, because it wasn't afraid of trading with estoc and could put significant stamina and bleed pressure on a turtle. However now with CCS AR nerf, estoc and Quills just outtrade CCS easily with Leo Ring, which means that now CCS no longer can really put pressure on turtle builds. And no other weapon can pressure turtle builds, Scythes are too slow and punishable and lack AR to trade with estoc. Deep CCS, carthus shotel and shit among those lines gets outraded even more by estoc. If you want to counter estoc turtling, you need a weapon which is about as fast and damaging and can put chip damage/stamina/bleed pressure. If it can't do the first part, it loses the matchup to estoc, if it can't do second, it loses the matchup to estoc. Most weapons can't do both, select few can meet one of those criteria and only one managed to meet both - prepatch CCS. Basically estoc turtle has now favourable matchup against literally every weapon in the game.