NFL Finds Patriots Employees Probably Deflated Balls

Okay, based on the PSI data provided in the report, I'm not at all convinced that it is "more probable than not" that there was a deliberate intent to deflate the balls to below regulation levels after the refs check them.

For the numbers below that are found in the report, I've added an average PSI level and "negligible difference" notation next to the numbers that were extremely close to the 11.32 PSI number that was given by Wells. Warning: I'm not saying that my math is 100% accurate as it was a quick estimation with no double checking involved, but should still be generally accurate

According to Exponent, based on the most likely pressure and temperature values for the Patriots game balls on the day of the AFC Championship Game ( i.e., a starting pressure of 12.5 psi, a starting temperature of between 67 and 71 degrees and a final temperature of 48 degrees), the Ideal Gas Law predicts that the Patriots balls should have measured between 11.52 and 11.32 psi at the end of the first half, just before they were brought back into the Officials Locker Room.

Most of the individual Patriots measurements recorded at halftime, however, were lower than the range predicted by the Ideal Gas Law.

*Patriots Ball Blakeman Prioleau AVG *1 11.50 11.80 11.65
*2 10.85 11.20 11.025
*3 11.15 11.50 11.375 *4 10.70 11.00 10.85
*5 11.10 11.45 11.30 (negligible) *6 11.60 11.95 11.775 *7 11.85 12.30 12.225 *8 11.10 11.55 11.325 *9 10.95 11.35 11.15 negligible difference *10 10.50 10.90 10.70
*11 10.90 11.35 11.225 negligible difference

If you're only counting the balls that are significantly under, then the number of underinflated balls is 3. This is a more reasonable number than the below IMO.

If you're also counting the balls whose PSI numbers very slightly under 11.32, then the number of underinflated balls is 6. I don't think it is reasonable to conclude that these balls were deliberately inflated due to being so close to 11.32 PSI.

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