NFL releases 2016 Team Twitter Hashtags, Seahawks receive #WeAre12

In this analysis I will be making a table listing teams that made the playoffs on a last place schedule, and how they fared in general and against teams that finished with a winning record that year.

However, I will also be listing how that team fares the following year on what is widely acknowledged as a tougher schedule if you make the playoffs/win your division. I wanted to see if teams "regressed to the mean" so to speak, and if there was any validity to a team being discredited for having a 4th place schedule.

So in this analysis I decided to make the window from 1990-2015, since that's when the NFL expanded to 6 playoff teams. So for consistency, it seemed like a good cutoff point.

NOTE: Teams that beat an 8-8 team (and thus keeping them at .500) DO NOT count in this analysis. It has no real bearing on the results anyway and pretty much every one of these teams beat an 8-8 team to begin with, so it's basically moot. This also goes for sub .500 teams in the playoffs as well. The records I am listing in the table against winning teams ALSO include playoff games too. Without further ado...

TEAMS THAT WENT FROM WORST TO FIRST (DIVISION CHAMPS) ON A LAST PLACE SCHEDULE, WITH FOLLOWUP SEASON

Year/Team Previous Year That Year Vs < .500 Teams Following Year Vs < .500 Teams Following Result
1991 Broncos 5-11 12-4 3-4 8-8 3-6 Missed Playoffs
1992 Chargers 4-12 11-5 3-5 8-8 5-6 Missed Playoffs
1993 Lions 5-11 10-6 2-4 9-7 4-7 Clinched Wild Card
1997 Giants 6-10 10-5-1 1-3-1 8-8 3-5 Missed Playoffs
1999 Rams 4-12 13-3 3-1 10-6 4-2 Clinched Wild Card
1999 Colts 3-13 13-3 4-3 10-6 4-5 Clinched Wild Card
2000 Saints 3-13 10-6 2-6 7-9 1-6 Missed Playoffs
2001 Patriots 5-11 11-5 5-3 9-7 3-6 Missed Playoffs
2001 Bears 5-11 13-3 3-4 4-12 2-7 Missed Playoffs
2003 Chiefs 8-8 13-3 3-3 7-9 4-5 Missed Playoffs
2003 Panthers 7-9 11-5 4-4 7-9 0-7 Missed Playoffs
2004 Chargers 4-12 12-4 2-5 9-7 3-6 Missed Playoffs
2004 Falcons 5-11 11-5 2-2 8-8 2-7 Missed Playoffs
2006 Saints 3-13 10-6 3-2 7-9 2-4 Missed Playoffs
2006 Eagles 6-10 10-6 2-3 8-8 2-7 Missed Playoffs
2007 Buccaneers 4-12 9-7 2-4 9-7 4-3 Missed Playoffs
2009 Saints 8-8 13-3 8-1 11-5 3-3 Clinched Wild Card
2010 Chiefs 4-12 10-6 1-3 7-9 1-3 Missed Playoffs
2011 Broncos 4-12 8-8 2-4 13-3 2-4 Won Division
2012 Redskins 5-11 10-6 3-4 3-13 1-6 Missed Playoffs
2013 Eagles 4-12 10-6 2-4 10-6 3-4 Missed Playoffs
2015 Redskins 4-12 9-7 0-4 ? ? ?

TEAMS THAT WENT FROM WORST TO PLAYOFFS (WILD CARD BERTH) ON A LAST PLACE SCHEDULE, WITH FOLLOWUP SEASON

Year/Team Previous Year That Year Vs < .500 Teams Following Year Vs < .500 Teams Following Result
1991 Falcons 5-11 10-6 5-5 6-10 1-8 Missed Playoffs
1996 Jaguars 4-12 9-7 4-2 11-5 3-4 Missed Playoffs
1997 Lions 5-11 9-7 7-6 5-11 1-7 Missed Playoffs
1998 Cardinals 4-12 9-7 1-3 6-10 0-4 Missed Playoffs
2000 Broncos 6-10 11-5 4-2 8-8 2-4 Missed Playoffs
2000 Eagles 5-11 11-5 3-5 11-5 4-4 Won Division
2003 Cowboys 5-11 10-6 2-3 6-10 1-5 Missed Playoffs
2004 Jets 6-10 10-6 4-6 4-12 2-8 Missed Playoffs
2005 Redskins 6-10 10-6 6-6 5-11 2-4 Missed Playoffs
2007 Redskins 5-11 9-7 2-6 8-8 4-5 Missed Playoffs
2008 Falcons 4-12 11-5 4-4 9-7 1-5 Missed Playoffs
2008 Eagles 8-8 9-6-1 7-4 11-5 1-5 Clinched Wild Card
2011 Bengals 4-12 9-7 1-8 10-6 3-3 Clinched Wild Card
2012 Colts 2-14 11-5 4-6 11-5 5-3 Won Division
2012 Vikings 3-13 10-6 4-6 5-10-1 1-4-1 Missed Playoffs
2013 Chiefs 2-14 11-5 1-6 9-7 4-4 Missed Playoffs

STATS

75.6% (28/37, not including 2015 Skins) of the teams who made the playoffs on a last place schedule failed to make the playoffs the following year.

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