In this analysis I will be making a table listing teams that made the playoffs on a last place schedule, and how they fared in general and against teams that finished with a winning record that year.
However, I will also be listing how that team fares the following year on what is widely acknowledged as a tougher schedule if you make the playoffs/win your division. I wanted to see if teams "regressed to the mean" so to speak, and if there was any validity to a team being discredited for having a 4th place schedule.
So in this analysis I decided to make the window from 1990-2015, since that's when the NFL expanded to 6 playoff teams. So for consistency, it seemed like a good cutoff point.
NOTE: Teams that beat an 8-8 team (and thus keeping them at .500) DO NOT count in this analysis. It has no real bearing on the results anyway and pretty much every one of these teams beat an 8-8 team to begin with, so it's basically moot. This also goes for sub .500 teams in the playoffs as well. The records I am listing in the table against winning teams ALSO include playoff games too. Without further ado...
TEAMS THAT WENT FROM WORST TO FIRST (DIVISION CHAMPS) ON A LAST PLACE SCHEDULE, WITH FOLLOWUP SEASON
TEAMS THAT WENT FROM WORST TO PLAYOFFS (WILD CARD BERTH) ON A LAST PLACE SCHEDULE, WITH FOLLOWUP SEASON
STATS
75.6% (28/37, not including 2015 Skins) of the teams who made the playoffs on a last place schedule failed to make the playoffs the following year.