[OC] My friend believes that COVID-19 is overhyped, no worse than the flu, so I made this graph for him. Hopefully I am comparing apples to apples here like I intend to. Criticism is welcome, please tell me if the columns I am comparing here don't make sense to compare!

Here are the overall death stats:

The COVID-19 pandemic led to more deaths in the U.S. than usual in 2020. So far, more than 2.9 million deaths in the U.S. were recorded in 2020, exceeding the total number of deaths in the U.S. in 2019, which is currently estimated at about 2.85 million. https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/the-cdc-reports-more-than-2-9-million-deaths-in-the-u-s-in-2020-at-least-377000-more-deaths-in-2020-compared-to-previous-years/

The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 1.2% from 723.6 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2018 to 715.2 in 2019. The 10 leading causes of death in 2019 remained the same as in 2018, although kidney disease, the eighth leading cause and influenza and pneumonia, the ninth in 2019, switched ranks. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm#:~:text=Data%20from%20the%20National%20Vital,2018%20to%20715.2%20in%202019.

First off, there is no indication this data is 'de-trended". There were 1.7 million US deaths in 1960 - is the US almost twice as unhealthy, as nearly twice as many people died last year? Of course not - the population has increased from 180 million to 330 million, and we would expect the number of deaths to rise accordingly. (Not 100% in lockstep - new medical breakthroughs will push it down, new diseases will push it up).

For the last few years, the US population (officially, not including illegal immigrants) has increased at ~0.6% annually. 2.85 million *1.06 = 3.021 million. All things being equal, we should have seen 3 million deaths in the US last year. However, because of lockdowns, all things were NOT equal. I haven't seen the data, but I'd bet "accidental injury" (falls, traffic accidents, etc.) which is usually the third leading cause of death is way down, because people stayed at home. So, extending that, it's clear that there is some 'extra' mortality to covid, because the death rate did not drop.

In addition, as the second quoted source notes, the age-adjusted death rate declined a bit from 2018 to 2019, and there's no reason to think that decline wouldn't continue to some extent.

If you combine the growth and the decline factors, you get 100 (base) x 1.06 (pop. growth) x .99 (1% decline in death rates) = 104.9 - i.e. deaths should have gone up by 5%, or ~150,000. But actual deaths only increased by about ~50,000.

As to the classification of deaths: it has been shown, over and over, that hospitals received cash incentives for deaths coded as Covid. In a mainly for-profit medical system, I going to posit that many non-Covid deaths were coded as Covid deaths for financial, not health, reasons. (Not to say those people may not have had Covid in their systems, but, as with the motorcycle rider in Florida, it wasn't the cause of death. And I know that's an unusual case, but how would we ever know about what happens in the hospital?)

tl:dr Overall deaths in the US in 2020 were not out of line with death totals from other years. Coding of deaths as 'due to Covid' is sometimes a human issue, and not always a disease issue.

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