TIL Peter McCathie survived being hit by lightning when he was a teenager and now he’s won the lottery — both events combined come to about a 1 in 2.6 trillion chance.

A likelihood ratio is just using the data and seeing how likely it was to happen given your assumed underlying probability model. Probability is estimating the chance it will happen without data, just looking at what does the model predict.

In this case the assumed model is just that everyone and everything is equal in terms of lighting strikes, and lottery odds come straight from however it works.

Perfectly acceptable. Doesn't mean you should read a lot in to it, but based on their assumptions the conclusion seems fine. Are the assumptions valid, well no, but they rarely will be. It's a good indicator of just how unlikely this event is, I mean as far as we know, it's only happened once, likely won't happen again for a pretty long time.

/r/todayilearned Thread Parent Link - abcnews.go.com