Trading strategy

You're basically trying to do what is called the "stop-loss start-gain strategy".

It won't work. Why? The market is well modeled as a geometric brownian motion (GBM), which is basically fancy math speak for a specific type of random looking function that grows over time. The important thing here is that the noise is what is called a "martingale", meaning that whether the noise will go up or down from its current position is independent of what it has done in the past.

Mathematics has this beautiful theorem about martingales called the Optional Stopping Theorem (sometimes also called the Optimal Stopping Theorem) that among other things implies that no finite strategy of buying and selling martingales will net you any money in expectation. What this means for your strategy is that while you can definitely implement it, the number of days in which the stock decreases 1% before you sell it will be much greater than the number of days in which the stock increases 5%, and that overall the good days and the bad days will exactly cancel out.

The analysis above becomes a bit more difficult when you factor in the growth term of GBM (stocks aren't pure noise: they do generally grow over time), but the moral of the story is that by effecting this strategy you will lose out on growth in the time you are not holding stock while not really doing anything useful by doing your crazy trades. That, plus the insane amount of time you'll be wasting in addition to any commission, is a good reason to not use your strategy in the stock market.

If you don't believe me, I implore you to use a stock simulator with two different accounts: one on which you simply buy-and-hold the stocks, and the other in which you do the crazy trades. Even after a couple of months, you're very likely to notice that your suggested strategy will trend less with the market than the simple buy-and-hold one, regardless of which way it ends up turning. While this is sometimes a good thing, it's only about as good of an idea as not having invested your money in the first place. Now add in the commission fees you'll face and the immense time commitment and the correct strategy becomes obvious.

/r/investing Thread