Unemployment

Calculation doesn't take into account people that fall out of the workforce meaning they have been unemployed for a duration of time and no longer qualify as employable. Does 2 part time jobs at walmart and mcdonalds count as 1 or 2 jobs in this calculation?

output

Output of what? Airplanes and war implements? Iphones?

measures of confidence

You seem to be quite confident, but I've never received a call to measure my confidence. Who do they talk to? Who measures this confidence and where does their pay check come from meaning? If university of michigan is calculating consumer confidence maybe their results could be goal seeked in such a way to maintain that funding for the project. Just speculation of course.

forward looking rate expectations

Again who is forward looking? The fed? The ratings agencies?

I'm not sure I agree with OP that capital is having a hard time figuring out where to go, asset prices do not support that proposition.

Asset prices are not really investments to a company they are input costs generally and then turned into an output. Low asset prices would indicate that companies are not buying thus not making as much output.

Mostly down to a mixture of changing capreq's for banks and the QE portfolio channel.

The nasdaq, s&p and DOW are influenced by capital requirements for banks? And the QE portfolio channel? You state we're nearing the end of the recovery period which means what...business as usual or the next leg of the downturn? How does the QE portfolio channel operate in the next down turn or when it gets reversed what happens to everything relying on it?

MB doesn't act directly on the real economy or money supply.

Even though it may not act directly it can have a huge effect indirectly and also changes perceptions of the market forcing them to misallocate capital to chase yield.