GWS haven't really knocked off anyone of note (StK, Melb, GC & Caaaarl'n) aside from Hawthorn, who aren't exactly a model of consistency this year (WLWLWLW).
The average margin between the Crows vs GWS is, I believe, over 70 points in the Crows favour (could even be 80+, just checked, turns out it's 86.6). That's not the average winning margin, that the average margin for all games, because GWS have never beaten the Crows. (Ok, so it's only 5 games, but...).
Given the way GWS have played so far this season that probably doesn't mean as much as it may have 7 games ago, but it should count for something, so why do so may punters think GWS should be favourites for this?
Did you see the Crows against the Bulldogs? That's probably the worse I've seen the Crows play for a while. If they dish that up to any team they're in trouble (taking nothing away from the Bullies, they were as good as I've seen this year in that game). I think this is the big question mark for the Crows, was that game an anomaly and the Crows just thought it'd happen? Or are they still a side that's learning a new game under a new coach and still have a way to go before they're a top four side (against other top four sides).
Injuries to the Crows. Sure there are some big ones in there. Sloney probably being the biggest, since he generally get's lots of the ball against GWS, then there's Douggie who'd been his usual solid performer this year, but, midfield is where the Crows have the most depth, so I think they can cover that. Back line is where it may hurt, Jaenchy will be missed, and Smith was a blow, but he's yet to match last years form, and DMac should cover him ok (probably even better given the form he's been in), and having Hendo back adds some much needed experience, not to mention some size in Jenkin and Cam. Plus, as long as the midfield does the job they have in every other game the GWS forward line may not see it enough to make it hurt (I hope so the GWS forward line is looking pretty good). Finally the forward line, having Jenkins strong marking in there won't hurt, but we know the Crows forward line can look after themselves.
Did you see the Crows against the Bulldogs? See point 1. (Did you see GWS against the Eagles?)
The Crows won't have a complacency as an excuse this weekend. I can't see them going to SS thinking this one is in the bag regardless of history between the two teams. So the question is can they win what may be a hard game, against a side who should be quality opposition, while playing away from home? By tomorrow night we'll know more about both of these sides.
My tip: Crows by 21 points.