Bill Simmons breaks silence on Instagram. Reveals his pick for Finals.

Since 1983 (i.e. the last 32 years), eight players account for all but three of the championships. Jordan, Kobe, Shaq, LeBron, Hakeem, Duncan, Magic, Bird, Isaiah. The outliers are the '11 Mavs, '08 Celts, '04 Pistons.

Superstar players who break through to win one tend to win multiples (Dirk being the exception). Part of it is because they are great players, but surely the playoff experience plays a part.

For example, there are several years where an upstart team had the best record in the league, only to be beaten in the playoffs by a more experienced team:

Year Team Record Result Lost to?
90-91 Portland Trailblazers 63-19 Lost West Finals Pistons
91-92 Chicago Bulls 67-15 Won NBA Title Bulls
92-93 Phoenix Suns 62-20 Lost NBA Finals Bulls
93-94 Seattle Sonics 63-19 Lost First round Rockets
94-95 San Antonio Spurs 62-20 Lost West Finals Rockets
95-96 Chicago Bulls 72-10 Won NBA Title Bulls
96-97 Chicago Bulls 69-13 Won NBA Title Bulls
97-98 Utah Jazz 62-20 Lost NBA Title Bulls
98-99 San Antonio Spurs 37-13 Won NBA Title Spurs
99-00 Los Angeles Lakers 67-15 Won NBA Title Lakers
00-01 San Antonio Spurs 58-24 Lost Semi-Finals Lakers
01-02 Sacramento Kings 61-21 Lost West Finals Lakers
02-03 Dallas Mavericks 60-22 Lost West Finals Spurs
03-04 Indiana Pacers 61-21 Lost East Finals Pistons
04-05 Phoenix Suns 62-20 Lost West Finals Spurs
05-06 Detroit Pistons 64-18 Lost East Finals Heat
06-07 Dallas Mavericks 67-15 Lost First Round Spurs
07-08 Boston Celtics 66-16 Won NBA Title Celtics
08-09 Cleveland Cavaliers 66-16 Lost East Finals Lakers
09-10 Cleveland Cavaliers 61-21 Lost Semi-Finals Lakers
10-11 Chicago Bulls 62-20 Lost East Finals Mavs
11-12 Chicago Bulls 50-16 Lost First Round Heat
11-12 San Antonio Spurs 50-16 Lost West Finals Heat
12-13 Miami Heat 66-16 Won NBA Title Heat
13-14 San Antonio Spurs 62-20 Won NBA Title Spurs

The '91 Trailblazers, '93 Suns, '95 Spurs, '98 Jazz, '02 Kings, '03 Mavericks, '05 Suns, '06 Pistons, '10 Cavs were the best regular season teams but lost to teams with playoff/finals experience. Several others just lost to random teams in the playoffs. The teams that end up winning, consistently, are the ones that have been there before.

So my point is: having experience seems to matter. Maybe it's not "playoff" experience necessarily, but maybe it's just about how to manage an entire season in order to optimize performance in the playoffs.

/r/nba Thread Parent