(Listening now, but saw your tweet the other day.)

On the odds:

Dragon gives Taylor her odds, and then fucks up by telling her that violence will not work.

If we assume that in the overwhelming majority of realities Taylor would resort to violence (Which given passenger shenanigans, makes some sense), the odds just shifted. If they asked for the odds a second time after Dragon delivered that information, my bet would be that they flipped. Seeing the future changes the future, even when it's odds.

“Ninety-six point eight percent chance we bring you into custody,” Dragon said. “We have the numbers on general paths you might take to escape. You understand if I don’t give you the chance of success on those numbers, but you should know that violence won’t work. Less than one percent chance of success.”

This means that in around 75% of realities where she makes it, it was through non-violent means. My bet is that if Dragon asked the odds a second time after giving this line, it would be closer to 75% chance Taylor escapes, if we assume that non-violent means simply would not have occurred to her in the vast majority of cases without external prompting.