I don't think the dealer is going to come down to your quoted 'Kelly Blue Book' estimate, not even close.
Depends on where you live and other factors, but I'd think that the dealer still considers it a new bike, just from last season's inventory. They still are going to expect a price either at or above the MSRP as your total OTD (out the door) price which would include all the taxes, fees, and other charges dealers are apt to include like set-up charges and freight.
I bought my ebony 2013 Ninja 300 (in April of that year), brand new OTD for $5200.00 MSRP at the time was $4999.00 and the bike was selling out at most local dealers. From browsing the forums and checking on CraigsList for used models, it was apparent that many peeps were paying upwards of $6K for theirs. I had no idea if my tactics would work, but I went ahead anyway. I waited till near the end of the month, called several dealers and spoke with the sales or sales manager. Each time I was very direct and had very much of the I don't give a fuck if they say no attitude in my cadence. I essentially said to each one, "Hey, I know these bikes are selling like crazy, and I don't want to insult you or waste your time, so I'll get right to the point; I have exactly $5200 to spend on a Ninja 300, and the only one I want is black, either a brand new or very recently bought and returned model with less than 2000 miles on it. If you can meet my price, great, you'll have my business. If not, no hard feelings, just take my number if your situation changes as I'll remain interested."
Every single dealer I called took me seriously and seemed to appreciate that I was laying my cards on the table. Yes I was offering less than they were getting from many customers, but I wasn't asking for a 'below MSRP' price so I couldn't be accused of being insulting or having unrealistic expectations. And the stress and time my direct approach nullified I think was somewhat appreciated by most of the people I talked to.
All I know is that it worked and I had a sales guy say, "give me 15 minutes to talk to my sales manager.". 10 minutes later we had a deal over the phone. Next day picked it up.
Good luck whatever your outcome is. Hoped sharing my experience helped somehow...