I think you’re right but you’re overthinking it. You’re bringing rational thought into this. If a dog is chasing you, throw something when it gets close. If you’re lucky, the dog will chase it instead of you. That’s about as complicated as this gets. A small silver of people care enough about policy to look past the prepackaged soundbytes presented to them by their teams. They are low-information voters.

To continue the metaphor, Roy Moore is like an unfamiliar toy brought into the house by a stranger; the dogs aren’t sure what to do with it, and the owner says, “No! That toy is not for you!” Then the owner picks up the Hillary ball and throws it.

Oh, boy! The dogs like that ball! It’s familiar and fun to chase over-and-over, they’re good at this game, and the other dogs like playing with that ball too!

That which is familiar and painless will always be preferential to that which requires effort. Republicans own the government, so why should their base worry about anything? Their team is in charge! They have no incentive to care or ask questions. They just want to chase the ball.