Length of Game vs. Actual Gameplay--FIXED [OC]

Do you know whether Giancarlo Stanton will have more HR's than last year? Do you know when he will hit his HR's? He hit his most HR's against the Mets last year (4), does that mean he will hit the most HR's against them again?

I said statistics don't predict future outcomes in baseball to the extent that they can in other sports

Tell me any sport where you can predict without a doubt if someone will improve or decline in stats, when their stats will be good, and who they will have the most of a stat against. You can't say in football that Aaron Rodgers will have the most yards against the Bears or the Lions or if he will have more TDs this year than last.

However, I can tell you that Giancarlo Stanton will have a higher batting average against lefties. I can tell you, barring injury, he will be in the top 10 in HRs in the league by the end of the season. I can tell you that he will walk over 10% of his plate appearances. There is a lot I can tell you about his future performance this season. I can't tell you how he will do in tomorrow's game, because that is an extremely small sample.

I did read the article you posted, but it didn't have the same conclusions that you were posting in your comment. The article did not make the point that baseball is completely controlled by randomness and predictions are not useful in baseball. The article made the point that randomness is a larger factor on small samples (playoff, individual game performances, individual plays) than other sports, which is very true. I can't pick with a large measure of accuracy who will win one game between the Nationals and the Diamondbacks this year, but I can predict with a significant measure of accuracy that the Nationals will win more games than the Diamondbacks by the end of the season. One is a small sample and the other is not. The same is true for a sport like basketball. A player can be a career 80% free throw shooter, but go 0 for 5 in a game... or have a season where they shoot 70%... etc. Football as well. Brett Favre had a huge sample size for a career, but he had seasons at the beginning and end of his career where he had above a 95 QB rating, but in the middle he hovered around the 70s. Same with Kurt Warner.

However, I would argue due to the large sample size of baseball over the course of 162 seasons, projecting future outcomes over the whole season is actually more accurate than other sports. The HR example I gave above is a clear example of that.

/r/dataisbeautiful Thread Parent Link - i.imgur.com