Melbourne house prices drop due to less foreign activity

No it isn't.

Not from China at any rate. China is currently in its own bubble. One that can only be described as breathtaking. There are entire ghost cities in China, at least 49 million empty homes. China's middle class has grown, yes, but it has done so on the back of the construction boom associated with that bubble, which is now unwinding.

I'm not suggesting China will de-industrialise - of course not. However it has hit a wall. It's bubble growth is not sustainable, and when this bubble bursts - and it will - China will suffer a recession. The fact USA's economy is recovering is likely to accelerate this process, as when the US raises rates, the US dollar will rise, US inflation will rise, and people in USA will probably stop importing as much stuff from its largest trading partner. Trump is also very protectionist, and his policies are highly inflationary. He has promised to slap a massive tariff on Chinese goods, and may well do so, as it is arguably in USA's interests to see China's economy (albeit temporarily) recede - this will vastly increase USA's competitiveness.

China is also facing the serious headwind of an aging population, and it's going to hit before China is fully developed which is a problem because if its economy unwinds it's not going to attract immigrants (like USA will - an note USA has a much higher birth rate so has a lot more wiggle room for growth). China is much like Japan in the 80s and 90s. Extremely rapid industrialisation in Japan caused huge stock and housing bubbles (which burst within a few years of each other), and there was not enough of a population upswing to carry Japan to the heights of its former growth. Its population is now in decline.

China's aged will outnumber its young in 2030 (don't scoff though, we will hit this in 2020, though lucky for us, we still have a relatively high birth rate and are already a wealthy country that can fully rely on consumption). China has one of the lowest birthrates in the world, and it also has the additional demographic problem of having too few women, as well as a large number of people keen to expatriate. Although the one child policy has just been lifted in sheer panic, it's too late for the near future. An aging population as serious as China's is going to set the country back. Economically speaking, China is fragile. This fragility will eventually burst its bubble.

All of the factors above are creating a perfect storm for China, which means we can't count on China's middle class growth to power world growth any longer. It is not going to happen. It is demographically impossible. It is economically unlikely too as the USA is just ramping up, and will probably see a decent period of growth in the short term. That competition will be a problem for China. I won't be surprised if we see Australia's trade shift to the USA.

On India, it has the same looming demographic disaster as China. There are serious doubts over its GDP growth too (which is also a problem with China's data). Don't get me wrong, India is growing, but it's GDP is trending down and is well down from what it was in 2010. India has a housing bubble too, which isn't as serious as China's, but is a challenge on its horizon.

So - basically we can't count on a growing middle class from China and India. There is little to support that outcome. Global inflation is looking almost certain to return, and that is going to do a lot to curb India and China for a time. Countries don't just grow until their quality of life catches up to the west - that's not really how it works, and it's certainly not likely to be the case within a timeframe that will save our bubble from bursting.

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