Personally I think an invasion isn’t a possibility at all now.

Firstly, troop buildups on the border with Ukraine aren’t anything new, they happen almost annually and large-scale military exercises as a “show of force”/bullying tactic have happened many times.

Secondly, I believe if an invasion was being seriously considered it would have happened already. The longer Russia waits the more time the world has to prepare and the more time the west has to reinforce anti-Russian invasion rhetoric.

I think there’s certainly an element of the west “playing up” the possibility of an invasion. Not that is isn’t warranted, but I believe the current risk is lower than some would have you believe. Make of this what you will.

In the end, Russia has once again performed huge military escalation without the goal to invade, but instead to bully and harass, and prolong the already-ongoing conflict in Donbas and Luhansk. But I don’t think an invasion is even a possibility any more, I don’t think it ever was in the Kremlin.