3. A summary of the argument between Destiny and Exskillsme

A summary of the argument between Destiny and Exskillsme

In order to reasonably use Bayesian analysis in this situation, we would have to be able to define things like:

"Probability Donald Trump would not say anything bad about Vladamir Putin ever - given Donald Trump's campaign is in no way colluding with Russia", vs

"Probability Donald Trump would not say anything bad about Vladamir Putin ever - given Donald Trump's campaign is in some way colluding with Russia",

and

"Probabilty Donald Trump would fire James Comey given Donald Trump's campaign in no way colluded with Russia", vs

"Probabilty Donald Trump would fire James Comey given Donald Trump's campaign did in some way colluded with Russia".

Needless to say, since we do not live in a universe in which thousands of Donald Trumps have campaigned and been elected to the presidency - sometimes colluding with Russia and sometimes not - we have no reasonable basis to assign probabilities to these ultra specific events.

It would be very easy for me to simply assign probabilities out of thin air in which would make Destiny's 40% seem reasonable in this frameowrk. It would also be reasonable to make up other numbers out of thin air which would make a much lower number reasonable.

Bayesian analysis adds nothing here.

Source: I am an actuary and former professional gambler who has studied probability theory extensively.

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